China and the E.U. – Why the Sudden Interest?

by Mustang

In late 2023, China signaled that it had no interest in participating in the peace talks proposed by Ukraine and the West, arguing that it has only limited influence on the two antagonists.  But in late February 2024, we suddenly find a Chinese envoy engaging Ukraine, Russia, Germany, Poland, France, and Brussels in shuttle diplomacy.  China’s involvement with the European Union is at least curious, particularly because several of these nations are members of the E.U. and NATO.

The experts tell us that China’s renewed interest in brokering peace between Ukraine and Russia has more to do with China’s worsening economy than any other factor.  President Xi needs the E.U. to open its profitable markets to Chinese goods.  Consequently, the E.U. is very high on President Xi’s wish list.  None of this will come as a surprise to Russia’s president.  There is little doubt that Putin and Xi have crafted this diplomatic plan.  Still, whether China will succeed in its efforts will likely hinge on the competence of U.S. diplomats (or lack of it).

We do not know the future of Russo-Chinese relations, and we can only guess how the international situation will develop, but I believe that the U.S. presidential elections will be a factor.  Some are playing the “what if” game, but I won’t engage in it because there are too many variables and unknowns.  But that doesn’t inhibit some people from forming conclusions about U.S. presidential candidates — and one in particular.

Of interest to me is that E.U. officials appear quite nervous about the upcoming U.S. elections and the possibility that Donald J. Trump could be re-elected to the presidency.  Why should E.U. officials be anxious?  The answer is that Mr. Trump previously called into question the necessity of NATO and its cost.  In 2024, the NATO budget in each area of the charter is €438.1 million for civil matters and €2.03 billion for military readiness.  These numbers represent increases of 18.2% and 12%, respectively, over NATO’s 2023 budget — the largest obligation to implement this budget belongs to the United States at 22%.

As we know, China is not alone in experiencing a worsening economy; the E.U. also faces serious problems, not the least of which is deepening economic difficulties and political instability.  How does one stabilize political discontent within the E.U.?  One way to achieve that would be through the use of NATO’s military.  It would not be the first time a Western military alliance marched into Italy, Germany, Czechoslovakia, and Bulgaria. 

Suppose E.U. officials are concerned about a second Trump presidency.  In that case, it may be because Trump is likely to move forward with disentangling the United States from NATO and its grossly disproportionate share of the NATO budget.

I pause now to ask: Has there ever been a greater conspiracy against one man?

America’s talking heads tell us that while American politics has left our society badly divided, the government’s machinery continues to drone on.  The talking heads tell us that America’s isolationist temptations are tamed through its mechanism rather than political policy.  The U.S. continues to fund Ukraine, but the amount has been significantly reduced.  This is not a win-win situation for those of us who see no role for the United States in Eastern European affairs.

Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the E.U. manages to address energy problems, tackle inflation, and destroy its agricultural output by significant levels.  And they also continue to manufacture ammunition in astounding quantities — no doubt for use in Ukraine paid for through coercive taxation.

In China, two factions continue to vie for influence.  Xi’s majority supports Vladimir Putin, but there is a minority (pro-Western European) group of the Chinese Communist Party.  This is why President Xi directed his foreign ministry to see what could be done to de-escalate the Russo-Ukraine conflict.  Putin stands a better chance of winning the conflict through a negotiated settlement than through brute force — which is why Putin has offered peace negotiations on six occasions.

Nevertheless, China will be the real winner in a negotiated peace between Russia and Ukraine.  China will benefit from a closer relationship with Russia (several joint projects are on the table at this very moment), and the E.U. will come to view China as a more stabilizing influence than the United States.  In any case, Europeans much prefer Chinese noodles to America’s Donald Trump.